Risk Assessment of Agricultural Affected by Climate Change : A Case study of Central Region of Thailand

Abstract

The objective of this study are to create a risk model of agriculture with the Geo Information System (GIS) and calculate the Agricultural Vulnerability Index (AVI) in Chainat, Singburi, Ang Thong and Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya provinces by selecting factors from the Likelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) that were relevant to agriculture and the climate. The data used in the study were during the year 1986-2016 and determined into three main components that each of which has a sub-component namely: 1)Exposure component consisting of the minimum and maximum temperature; 2)Risk-sensitive component (Sensitivity) consisting of total annual water runoff, annual soil water amount and number of nature hazard and 3)Adaptive capacity components consisting of distance from water source. The researchers then calculated the sub-district average agricultural fragility index (AVI) in the study areas.

               The results showed that the average AVI was between 0.381424154-0.673695. The maximum value  was found in Phai Wong sub-district, Ang Thong province, followed by Sao Rong Hai sub-district, Ang Thong province and Na Khu sud-district, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya province which were at 0.673695, 0.656638 and 0.647445, respectively, while the minimum average AVI was found in Bang Phutsa sub-district, Sing Buri province was at 0.3814.