FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE VALUE OF LONGAN’S EXPORT OF THAILAND

Abstract

The study were  to  forecasting value of exports longan in Thailand. Study aims to find the forecast models suitable for forecasting the value of Thailand's exports longan exported abroad. To obtain the model forecasting with the lowest error rates and the forecast is for 2 years during 2556 to 2557 by applying statistical forecasting techniques and using a programs to help in the data analysis. The results showed that the model time series of  Box-Jenkins Method have the best fit with the model is the value of exports longan are ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,0,1)₄ : Z_t  = d+α_t-0.38872α_t-1 – 0.57915 α_t-2 – 0.47585 α_t-4 + 0.18498 α_t-5  + 0.27559 α_t-6   where the model was to forecasted the second period with the recession, the value of exports longan fruit tends to increase from the year 2555 was 8.26% and 0.32% respectively.